Prediction vs Explanation

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Prediction vs Explanation: A Puzzle

We do ten experiments. A scientist observes the results, constructs a theory consistent with them, and uses it to predict the results of the next ten. We do them and the results fit his predictions. A second scientist now constructs a theory consistent with the results of all twenty experiments.

The two theories give different predictions for the next experiment. Which do we believe? Why?

via incoherently scattered ponderings

0 thoughts on “Prediction vs Explanation”

  1. A theory is only as good as its first falsification. In the case of economics, that would be “never any good”. In the case of General Relativity or quantum field theory, that would be “perfect within observation to date.” In the cases of string theory and SUSY, that would be “worse than economics”.