{"id":3316,"date":"2009-08-07T03:00:32","date_gmt":"2009-08-07T08:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.scienceforums.net\/swansont\/?p=3316"},"modified":"2009-08-07T03:00:32","modified_gmt":"2009-08-07T08:00:32","slug":"death-to-exponential-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/blogs.scienceforums.net\/swansont\/archives\/3316","title":{"rendered":"Death to Exponential Growth"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/gravityandlevity.wordpress.com\/2009\/07\/08\/your-body-wasnt-built-to-last-a-lesson-from-human-mortality-rates\/\">Your body wasn\u2019t built to last: a lesson from human mortality rates<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>What do you think are the odds that you will die during the next year?  Try to put a number to it \u2014 1 in 100?  1 in 10,000?  Whatever it is, it will be twice as large 8 years from now.<\/p>\n<p>This startling fact was first noticed by the British actuary Benjamin Gompertz in 1825 and is now called the \u201cGompertz Law of human mortality.\u201d  Your probability of dying during a given year doubles every 8 years.  For me, a 25-year-old American, the probability of dying during the next year is a fairly miniscule 0.03% \u2014 about 1 in 3,000.  When I\u2019m 33 it will be about 1 in 1,500, when I\u2019m 42 it will be about 1 in 750, and so on.  By the time I reach age 100 (and I do plan on it) the probability of living to 101 will only be about 50%.  This is seriously fast growth \u2014 my mortality rate is increasing exponentially with age.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Your body wasn\u2019t built to last: a lesson from human mortality rates What do you think are the odds that you will die during the next year? Try to put a number to it \u2014 1 in 100? 1 in &hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.scienceforums.net\/swansont\/archives\/3316\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-math","category-other-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/blogs.scienceforums.net\/swansont\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3316","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/blogs.scienceforums.net\/swansont\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/blogs.scienceforums.net\/swansont\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blogs.scienceforums.net\/swansont\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blogs.scienceforums.net\/swansont\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3316"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/blogs.scienceforums.net\/swansont\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3316\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/blogs.scienceforums.net\/swansont\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blogs.scienceforums.net\/swansont\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blogs.scienceforums.net\/swansont\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}