Swans on Tea

The Red Baron’s streak was partly skill but mostly luck. “Theory of aces: high score by skill or luck?” by Simkin and Roychowdhury, from the arxiv blog

We find that the variance of this skill distribution is not very large, and that the top aces achieved their victory scores mostly by luck. For example, the ace of aces, Manfred von Richthofen, most likely had a skill in the top quarter of the active WWI German fighter pilots, and was no more special than that.

And while I’m on the topic, there’s an issue with the Royal Guardsmen’s “Snoopy vs. the Red Baron”

Eighty men died tryin’ to end that spree

It wasn’t a spree until after several, or at the very least two, men had died. OK, I’ll accept artistic license.

(and since the Germans required that “The opponent aircraft had to be either destroyed or forced to lend [sic] on German territory and its crew taken prisoners.” in order to be a victory, so when Snoopy was shot down part way through the song, that wasn’t one of the 80.)