Higher Speed Limits Cost Lives, Researchers Find
“This is a failed policy because it was, in essence, an experiment over 10 years. People assumed that increasing the speed limit would not have an impact,” said Friedman. “We’ve shown that something has happened and it’s quite dramatic.”
Umm, really? People assumed that if you drive faster, with its associated reduction in response times and increase in collision energy, that there would be no effect? I think people wanted the higher speed limit despite the higher risk it entailed, in part because of other safety advances.
Friedman uses the example of the 3,000 people who died in the September 11th terrorist attacks.
“That tragic event has led to a whole foreign policy,” he said. “We estimate that approximately 12,500 people died as a result of a policy to deregulate speed enforcement — four times what happened on September 11th — and yet changing the policy to reduce speed limits may be very difficult.”
What they don’t say is that despite the extra ~1250 deaths per year from the higher speed, overall deaths have fallen, and the rate per vehicle-mile has dropped dramatically over the years. Per mile traveled, you’re about half as likely to die as compared to 1980.
The problem with simply presenting a number is that there is no basis for a valid comparison. The apples-to-oranges 9/11 fatalities number is given instead. The graph shows about 15,000 fatalities per year, currently, making this a 9% increase, which discounts the possibility of other influences such as more cars on the road and more miles being traveled, which the fatality rate statistic indicates. (Though that can be influenced by many things as well)
A more meaningful analysis might go something like this. My upcoming vacation will entail me driving perhaps 1,000 miles. I can drive slower if I choose, but I have to consider if saving a half-hour of travel is worth it. Since being on the road for ~8 hours means fatigue comes into play, it might actually be safer to cut down on the travel time. If the fatality rate is 2 per 100 million miles, this means a statistical chance of 0.002%, which is quite small. And we’re talking about increasing this by 10%, to 0.0022%. The sin-by-omission in the article has you focusing on the dramatic large number rather than the overall picture.