I just read that the Chicago Bulls won the NBA draft lottery, meaning that the team with the worst record did not gain the first overall pick in the draft. Color me shocked. It was termed a “surprise” in some stories. Maybe it was a surprise that they won it, but not that the Heat — who, with the worst record had a 25% chance of winning the lottery —didn’t. Before the 1994 draft, the weighting was adjusted to give the team with the worst record a 25% of drafting first. Since that time, the team with a 25% probability has won exactly once: the Orlando Magic in the 2004 draft. (The Cavs in 2003 had a 22.5% chance, by virtue of being tied with Denver for the worst record.)

Whoever ends up in the cellar this year had better be praying for some regression to the mean.