Can you predict Nobel Prize winners by counting citations?

Short version: Previously, Yes. Currently, no. Like sports.

In some sense this is like the “parity” many sports fans talk about. Making good predictions in an NCAA tournament bracket or fantasy football league can be pretty difficult, because there has been an increase in the number of high-quality players and teams. Further, the teams now must be compared across conferences or leagues. While Gonzaga might have won its conference tournament, it may not be strong compared to teams from the ACC, and the fifth-place team in the English Premier league might still win the European Cup.

Sports has better merchandising, too. (Can’t find an “I’m a Hänsch-man” (2005) hoodie anywhere)