Space Stasis: What the strange persistence of rockets can teach us about innovation.
The development of rockets — driven by war and the invention of nuclear weapons, and the relationship the story has with recent economics and innovation.
The above circumstances provide a remarkable example of path dependency. Had these contingencies not obtained, rockets with orbital capability would not have been developed so soon, and when modern societies became interested in launching things into space they might have looked for completely different ways of doing so.
Before dismissing the above story as an aberration, consider that the modern petroleum industry is a direct outgrowth of the practice of going out in wooden, wind-driven ships to hunt sperm whales with hand-hurled spears and then boiling their heads to make lamp fuel.
I’ll agree that there is some path dependency, but rockets were being developed in the 1920s for space travel, earth based transport and military applications. Other ideas had been proposed – Jules Verne’s space cannon and Tsiolkovsky’s space elevator – but rockets were becoming practical as various technologies converged. Space cannons and space elevators are still ultra vires.
I can’t imagine why the author is surprised at rocket’s persistence. I sure haven’t seen any serious competing technology, though there are some good ideas out there. In fact, many of the alternate approaches seem better suited for hurling hydrogen bombs as opposed to passengers.