Global Warning III

by Ira Mark Egdall

The ultimate test of a scientific theory is its ability to make predictions. In his article “After the Deluge” in the December 2011 issue of Scientific American, John Carey lists a number of human-induced global warming predictions that have now been confirmed.

For example, measurements show average night time temperatures are rising — as predicted by climate change models. Other confirmed predictions include rising heat and drought across the American Southwest and in the Middle East, as well as more frequent heat waves in higher latitudes (e.g. the American upper Midwest and Russia).

In addition, there is a fourfold probability of an increase in heat waves in Europe over pre-industrial times. And, Carey points out, “ten of (New Hampshire’s) fifteen biggest floods since 1934 have occurred in the past fifteen years” — another indication of global warming.

It seems to me the case for human-induced global warming is becoming more and more compelling. And climate models predict things will only get worse. We ignore the consensus of the experts and their predictions at our own peril.

I welcome all comments — pro and con.

My website: marksmodernphysics.com
You can also follow me on Twitter@IMEgdall

Source:

Carey, John A., “After the Deluge”, SciAm Vol. 305, No. 6 (Dec. 2011), pp. 72-75.

39 thoughts on “Global Warning III”

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  2. Ira, the problem I have with such articles is that they are too general. The predictions hold for a warming world regardless of cause.

    I have a theory that global warming is caused by unicorn farts. This theory predicts that nights and winters will warm faster than days or summers. Since this is what is observed, does this mean that unicorn farts exist?

    The things mentioned “are consistent with” the AGW theory, but they are also “consistent with” any other theory about a warming world including natural cycles. They do not therefore work as “proof” for the AGW cause.

    It isn’t the AGW thing that has me bothered, it’s the way the case presented. Call me old fashioned but it used to be that a theory had to be falsifiable. A theory that predicts anything is not falsifiable and isn’t science as I understand the term.

    Should science be looking for the things that falsify the theory or the things that “are consistent with” it?

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  13. Actually the models here in 2013 have not done a good job of predicting will you update to show that. no significant global warming in 16 years.

    1. Global warming is a long-term effect. Measurements over a decade or so can be too small a time period to show the effect. A period of 50 years or so is a much better indicator of the effect. Here we can clearly see the warming trend.

      Perhaps continued measurements will show the warming that has most definitely occurred over the past has somehow leveled off. I think this is unlikely, but we just don’t know at this point. What concerns me is that our planet is likely to resume rising temperatures, and perhaps at a greater rate.

      I feel it is critical to continue to push for dramatic reductions in fossil fuel use and other greenhouse gas-producing activities. The likelihood and impact of higher and higher global temperatures on human life is just too great.

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