Things Break, Don't They?

Chad went an mentioned a buzzword that sets my teeth on edge: deferred maintenance.

It’s not just the economics of academia that suck in this regard. I’ve seen my fair share of it, too. As Chad notes, maintenance is not sexy, and it’s hard to get people not directly involved fired up about it.

Things break, even when Dino and Luigi Vercotti aren’t shaking you down. They break even when you can avoid the overzealous attitude of “If it’s stuck, force it. If it breaks it needed replacing anyway.” And there various approaches you can take to this fact of life —

1. Fix/replace things when they break
2. Maintain the equipment in good working order, so it breaks down less often
3. Try to anticipate when something will break, and replace it just before that happens

If we’re talking about things we really need, the first option is pretty much mandatory. Sure, when the singing fish in the rec room breaks down you can let it slide, but not so much when your lab equipment goes. But the other options entail some prioritizing and risk management. If you can afford to let some apparatus run until it dies, and the downtime while you replace it doesn’t affect you, then your choice is pretty clear, but very often in business and research you can’t let that happen. Broken equipment means some people can’t do their jobs, and other people are probably working overtime getting things working again. And yet, all too often the first response to budget cuts is to cut the maintenance budget.

At first glance, from a beancounter’s bottom-line approach, this looks good, which it’s why it’s so tempting. Money not spent is money saved, at least in the short-term, myopic acasual view, and new equipment does tend to last a while even without doing much to maintain it. So you seem to have saved money. But eventually, the equipment dies before it would have, had it been properly looked after, and now you’re stuck. You hadn’t expected the equipment to die, bureaucratically speaking— there’s no money in the budget for a replacement. You don’t already have a spare widget, because that’s an expenditure, and the goal was to cut the budget.

In business situations, where you deliver a product of some sort, you can at least quantify downtime in terms of lost productivity, and make a business case for keeping things running. But what if that metric isn’t there? There are a lot of situations where lost time isn’t measured (people “steal” budget this way — eliminate a position by shifting work to another department. They look like they’ve saved money, and the extra time burden isn’t accounted for because it’s other departments that are taking up the slack)

Here’s where the really insidious part of the process comes into play. From what I’ve seen (in different bureaucracies), even though run-of-the-mill budget expenses are squeezed, if you can turn it into a crisis you can still get money. Without this widget, your operations screech to a halt, and that’s a calamity, dammit, so you take your case to a higher level, and they search for money to patch the figurative or literal gaping hole that’s appeared. Money is siphoned off from other sources (perhaps, ironically, from other programs cutting maintenance budget), and that saves the day. Until the next emergency.

And nobody has learned anything useful. Systems that run this way have this very destructive feedback loop. The catastrophes get fixed, after a fashion, and few stop to think about how that situation — and the large amount of money spent — could have been averted with less money ultimately spent. And the really frustrating thing is that the people involved in these decisions are smart enough to know that not changing the oil in their car isn’t a viable money-saving tactic, and yet can’t seem to transfer that mindset to the business case.

Tiltonomics

The Economics of Pinball

The economics of pinball at its peak, when it took advantage of programmable electronics that would shortly be its downfall.

In 1980, pinball went digital, multi-ball, and multi-media starting with the game Black Knight. Black Knight brought pinball to a new level, literally speaking because it was among the first games with ramps and elevated flippers, but even more importantly because it brought a new challenge that drew in and solidified a pinball crowd. In doing so it also set the pinball market on a path that would eventually lead to its demise.

I remember Black Knight, and reading a story about how it was developed. The voice synthesizer programming had to be tweaked to make the “s” harder, because “I will slay you” was sounding more like an uncomfortable proposition than a challenge. But even then video games were already beginning to displace pinball machines.

All for One, and One for One

Green Consumers and the Recession: Is It Really Different This Time?

“What we see in more developed countries is that, yes, there is the idea of having a personal benefit, but there is a greater sense of altruism when you’re behaving green. In the U.S., it has more to do with the personal benefit as opposed to having some sort of general sense that we have to save the planet.”

I’m shocked — shocked! — to find gambling going on in this establishment.

Grad School is like a Startup Company

Paul Graham: What Startups are Really Like

The cofounder is your thesis advisor. There are many points with a pretty decent correlation to life in grad school, at least for physics, and my datum.

I’ve been surprised again and again by just how much more important persistence is than raw intelligence.

Not that physics grad school is populated with dummies or anything, but persistence is mandatory.

I’m continually surprised by how long everything can take. Assuming your product doesn’t experience the explosive growth that very few products do, everything from development to dealmaking (especially dealmaking) seems to take 2-3x longer than I always imagine.

Ask a grad student how long until the get their degree, and you’ll probably get an answer like, “I just need to get this one bit of apparatus to work, get a little data, and then it’s thesis-writing time. I’ll be done in a year.” A year later, you will probably get the same response.

When I was in school, we filed a plan of what coursework we would be doing for our degree, which was reviewed and approved by your thesis committee. It had to include a certain number of research credits, which basically amounted to one year of full-time research. A friend of mine asked, “What happens if I finish sooner than that?” which elicited a round of laughter from his advisors. “We’ll deal with that if it happens.” He had done two years of classes at that point, and was there for 5 more years.

Telling It Like it Is

Literary Lesson: Authors, Poets Write the News

It was on an average Wednesday that a very serious Israeli newspaper conducted a very wild experiment. For one day, Haaretz editor-in-chief Dov Alfon sent most of his staff reporters home and sent 31 of Israel’s finest authors and poets to cover the day’s news.

[…]

Among those articles were gems like the stock market summary, by author Avri Herling. It went like this: “Everything’s okay. Everything’s like usual. Yesterday trading ended. Everything’s okay. The economists went to their homes, the laundry is drying on the lines, dinners are waiting in place… Dow Jones traded steadily and closed with 8,761 points, Nasdaq added 0.9% to a level of 1,860 points…. The guy from the shakshuka [an Israeli egg-and-tomato dish] shop raised his prices again….”

Finance reporting, I think is an especially egregious offense by reporters. Think about it — no matter what happens in the stock market, the reporters will have some cause ascribed to it. And they’re just making it up. Most days the stock market signal is just noise.

In the Zone

Fast Food Apple Pies and Why Netbooks Suck

I have no horse in this race, or a smartphone for that matter, but any explanation of “the zone of suck” using fast-food apple pies is worthwhile reading, IMO.

Monarch Burger went to the trouble of making their apple pie look like a slice of homemade apple pie. While it seems appealing in its photo on the menu, it sets up a false expectation. It may look like a slice of homemade apple pie, but it certainly doesn’t taste like one. Naturally, it flopped. Fast-food restaurants are set up to be run not by trained chefs, but by a low-wage, low-skill, disinterested staff. As a result, their food preparation procedures are designed to run on little thinking and no passion. They’re not set up to create delicious homemade apple pies.

Potpourri for $200

Lots of great stuff on kottke recently

Dan Baum: The Following Account of My Short Career at The New Yorker Ran as a Series of Tweets on May 8, 11, and 12, 2009

Three tweets: (Thufferin’ Thuccotath!)

of arms. Tom Wolfe is right, I think, when admonishes young writers to ignore the old advice about “writing what

you know,” and instead write about what you don’t know. If you have to learn about something from scratch, he

argues, you don’t bring any lazy preconceptions. John said I was welcome to give it a try. “Think about trying a

Advice from Rat Traders

Our program is a professional service to the financial industry; rats are being trained to become superior traders in the financial markets. Using our own methodology in accordance with well-established animal training techniques, our subjects learn to recognize pattens in historical stock and futures data as well as generating trading signals. We provide solutions for tick based trading data and day based data. RATTRADERS rats can be trained exclusively for any financial market segment. They outperform most human traders and represent a much more economic solution for your trading desk.

Only-slightly-3-d art: Simon Schubert (small folds in paper) and Marco Maggi (slides 06-9 through 06-12 are “pencil on aluminum foil”)

Getting Your Scorecard

Wrong Tomorrow

When someone makes a prediction, people post it to the site along with a brief description and a URL. We monitor it and change its status to true or false when appropriate.

They want significant, empirically testable predictions made by public figures, that have no more than a five-year horizon. Topics (thus far) are politics, technology, and finance.

Research has shown that experts make predictions at a rate worse than chance. This site exists in order to hold people and media outlets accountable for pretending to see into an unpredictable future.

And despite being often-wrong, they keep at it. And people still listen to them and cite them as authorities.

via

Wanna Buy It?

The Makers of Things at Rands in Repose.

Building the Brooklyn Bridge.

With the caisson on the riverbed, it’s time to push it another 45 feet into the riverbed in search of bedrock. Workers did this through the continued application of stone to the top while workers in the caisson dug out the riverbed with shovels, buckets, and, when necessary, dynamite. There was nothing resembling an electrical grid, so there was nothing resembling modern lighting in this watertight pine-tarred box, which was slowly descending through the floor of the East River. There were no jack hammers, so when they hit rock, they used small amounts of dynamite to crack these rocks. In a pine-tarred box, at the bottom of a river, mostly in a very wet dark.

Interesting comment:

When Brooklyn and New York’s population was booming at the end of the 19th century, the best way to get to and from Brooklyn was via ferries. As solutions were considered, I’m sure there were those who simply thought, “More boats!” These ardent defenders of the status quo were not engineers — they were the business. Their goal was not to build something great, but to make a profit.

It should be obvious, but when you ask people with a stake in it, you are going to get a biased answer. The application of this nugget to today’s economic situation is left as an exercise for the diligent student.