Category Archives: Sports

What We Need is More Stats

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In honor of Dirk: ‘Points Per Miss’ and his spot among the NBA’s all-time greats

As Bill Simmons tweeted: “48 points, 3 missed shots total (FG + FT). We need a stat like ‘points per miss’ to see if that’s a record for a 40+ point game.”
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And as I went to bed last night, Simmons’ tweet had me thinking. Just how useful of a stat would PPM be? So I decided to get up this morning and investigate it a little further.

I like it, because it’s a measure of offensive efficiency. Raw statistics, such as points scored don’t differentiate between good shooting and poor shooting, incorporates points scored or squandered on the free-throw line, and normalizes, to some extent, the increased risk and reward of three-point shots for which shooting percentage fails to account. Efficient shooting leaves more opportunities for teammates, which the author recognizes:

Points per game is an oft-cited stat, but it provides little in the way of efficiency. A player could score 40 points per game and lead the league, but if he just does it because he chucks up half of his team’s shots, his team probably is not very good or balanced on offense. Another player who scores only 25 points per game but who is highly efficient at turning shooting opportunities into points is maximizing his own scoring chances while, theoretically, not wasting his team’s scoring opportunities shooting lower percentage shots (by comparison) than what his teammates could get

Nothing Stops

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Greed is good in NFL labor talks

Remember the scene in “Shawshank” when Andy tells the warden that he’s done with laundering money for him? The warden’s eyes narrow. He shakes his head. He looks at Andy as dismissively as one human being can regard another.

“Nothing stops,” he says. “Nothing.”

That’s me. I’m the warden. Nothing stops. I will make more money than I did last year, and I will continue to regard employees and readers as disposable pawns. This isn’t about common sense, dignity, relationships, long-term plans, or even preserving the fragile relationship between a customer and a provider. It’s about generating more money in Years 5 through 8 than I made in Years 1 through 4. That’s it. Oh, and steamrolling anyone who gets in my way. I forgot that part.

Science and the Single Sports Metaphor

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Call it fate, call it luck, Karma, whatever. I was thinking about the topic of the effort needed to do science, and then see that Doug Natelson has a post up on the subject (Battle hymn of the Tiger Professor), and Chad has already responded to it (Physics Takes Practice). Which just leaves me with the tired sports metaphor. In light of the recent Packers victory in the Super Bowl, perhaps it’s fitting to use a quote from Vince Lombardi:

Most people have the will to win, few have the will to prepare to win.

So it is with science, or any profession. It’s not enough to want to be good at something if you aren’t willing to do the work needed to perform at a high level. Is anyone really surprised to find out how much time professional athletes spend training? Or that the physically gifted ones who don’t have a good work ethic tend to fall short when they reach the professional level? Anyone who has played sports has probably had the realization that regardless of their initial skill level, getting better required doing drills and more drills, and mastering the basics was required before moving on — you can’t dribble a basketball between your legs if you can’t dribble at all. The approach to learning physics really isn’t any different.

Games People at Hotels Play

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So I’m at ScienceOnline 2011 for the weekend; I drove down Thursday, checked in and apparently missed DrSkyskull in the lobby when I went to the bar to get dinner. And then I collapsed. As I write this Friday morning I’m skipping the tours because I knew I wouldn’t be up to it; I went to the gym instead, figuring that would help me shake off my travel hangover.

The elliptical was a really fast track. Insanely fast, as compared to the one I use at work. I know that the one at work might not be calibrated properly, but I find it curious that the one at the hotel was indicating at least 10% faster than what I’ve been doing the past week. The exercise room is located next to the pool, so the air is warm and humid (somewhat less so than normal because it’s cold outside, and the window condenses a bunch of water) and that promotes sweat. Profuse sweat doesn’t help keep you cool, but it can make you feel like you’re doing really well in your workout. And the scale was reading ~3 lbs lighter than the scales at work and at the doctor’s office.

I wonder if it’s deliberate. It gives you positive feedback on your workout and makes you feel good about it, especially if you might not be at the top of your game from being on the road. Gives you a good mental association with the hotel. I read stories about how much effort goes into the psychology of casinos and all the tricks they employ, so it doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility that someone’s gaming the exercise equipment to get a tiny edge in getting repeat business.

Or maybe it’s all about having little to think about on the machine, I had an awesome workout, and I can have the chocolate cake for dessert.

The Non-Rivalry Rivalry

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In light of a surprisingly good weekend of wild-card playoff football (Three games competitive until the end, and the fourth didn’t get out of hand until the second half), we have Brady, Manning and the rivalry. (It means a little less right now, with the Colts being bounced by the Jets, but whaddaya gonna do?)

In comparison to other sports and other rivalries, this one isn’t. Quarterbacks aren’t in direct competition with each other, and they don’t act like rivals. One minor objection I have to the analysis is that they don’t emphasize the importance of the other players on the team. While passing yards and TDs reflect talent of the quarterback, your winning percentage also has a lot to do with how good your defense is. But that’s peripheral to the point of the story.

Where have You Gone, Joe DiMaggio Bob Feller?

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Feller Proud to Serve in ‘Time of Need’

I grew up in the generation after Bob Feller; I knew about his exploits because the strikeout king of the 70’s (and beyond), Nolan Ryan, was often compared to him. So I didn’t full appreciate his impact in baseball and beyond. But there’s this:

A lot of folks say that had I not missed those almost four seasons to World War II — during what was probably my physical prime — I might have had 370 or even 400 wins. But I have no regrets. None at all. I did what any American could and should do: serve his country in its time of need. The world’s time of need.

A lot of professional baseball players served in WWII, making the same kind of personal sacrifice Feller mentions here (including Joe D, to whom I mean no disrespect by lining out his name), but his passing and the circumstances of his enlistment (exempt from service via the draft) is in stark relief to what I’m seeing around me lately. Personal sacrifice to serve your country in a time of need? I don’t think holding the political process hostage in order to extend tax cuts to the richest 2% of the population qualifies.

My attitude isn’t helped by the fact that the “we all must tighten our belts” rhetoric has already hit me; there will be no cost-of-living adjustment for federal employees. I’ll manage, though, and the sentiment is right — everyone needs to do their part. But that actually means everyone. What bothered me was the process, and the president giving this concession before any negotiations had taken place. And then we see the right’s blustering about cutting the deficit being tossed aside faster than a dress on prom night. As Al Franken noted, it feels like the president punted on first down.

Sacking Some Statistics

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Thanksgiving and Football: Why you should always go for it on 4th and short

[I]f teams that decide to kick when they are on their opponents’ 30 yard line make the field goal an average of 33% of the time, then the benefit of kicking is assigned a point value of 1 (since a field goal is worth 3 points, and 33 percent of 3 points is 1 point). Since teams that only have one yard to go when they are on the 30 yard line convert for a first down 64% of the time, and teams that are inside the 30 yard line score a touchdown about 40% of the time, the benefit of going for a first down is assigned a value of 1.8 (0.64 x 0.40 = 0.24, or a 24% chance of scoring a touchdown by going for it on 4th and 1, and 0.24 x 7 points = 1.8 points). This means that “going for it” should result in scoring almost twice as many points than kicking

One problem is that the chance of making a 47-yard field goal is about twice the value used here. It varies from year to year, of course, but field goals from 50+ yards are made at about a 50-50 clip (almost 53% last year), and 40-49 yards is north of 60% (73% last year). Which makes the expected gain from a field goal attempt from that distance about the same as from going for the first down, and perhaps slightly higher.

Also, the distribution of the abilities of offenses and defenses play a role. The average chance of scoring might be 40%, but I’ll bet that the e.g. Colts, Patriots and Saints are higher than that, and teams trying this against the Ravens are lower. And add to that situational details, such as whether a field goal increases your lead to more than one score, or it gives you a lead or ties the game.

Statistics are all well and good, but there’s a problem with looking at them without context, and not understanding what they mean. It’s also not a good idea to just retrieve a number from a dark place in order to make your conclusion look good, when the correct numbers are available.