Nutty Bolt Analysis is Screwed Up

I see that the The Math of the Fastest Human Alive has been zombified, as it has been reprinted in a few places, most recently being Esquire magazine and on ESPN. The article bothered me when it first came out and it bothers me still.

Ethan plotted the world record times for the 100 meters and fit them to an exponential

Okay, first off, mathematically, it looks like the theoretical limit of how fast humans can run the 100 meter dash is somewhere around 9.2 seconds, but it looks like we won’t get there for hundreds of years.

Yes — mathematically. From the standpoint of an ad hoc fit to an exponential, it’s OK as far as it goes. It’s not a particularly great fit, but the problem is that there’s no justification for the fit — no mechanism. It’s meaningless, and furthermore, it’s wrong. Because it should really predict in both directions, and it doesn’t. The fit shows that after you remove the 9.2 sec offset, it should take about 70 years to cut the time in half. i.e. ~10.4 sec in 1920 is 1.2 seconds above the baseline. So one should get to 0.6 sec above the baseline — 9.8 sec — in about 1990, and to 9.5 sec in 2060. Pretty close for eyeballing it.

So now let’s go in the other direction. In 1850, the time should be 2.4 seconds above the baseline, or 11.6 seconds. 1780 would be 14 seconds flat, and 1710 the fastest human alive ran the 100-meter dash in 28.4 seconds. Go back to around 1500 and it’s a full minute, which is walking speed for today’s humans. You’ll excuse me if I don’t believe that I can walk as fast as the fastest human could sprint 500 years in the past. The curve-fitting is meaningless without the next step of coming up with a mechanism, on which you could base a model. There clearly are limitations on how fast a human could run, but any resemblance of the physical prediction to the number from this analysis would be accidental. Whether it will take hundreds of years to get there is a specious claim.

But second off, you can also see that Usain Bolt is running much faster than humans ought to be running right now.

This is also crap. The numbers from the graph don’t give you an “ought to be” value. If it did, then those record holders from 1975 through Bolt’s recent exploits “ought to” have run faster than they did. Go tell Carl Lewis he was an underachiever. In reality, one would expect there to be noise in the numbers. One could measure this and see if Bolt is better than the prediction in a statistically significant way (I’m guessing yes). This would still be ad-hoc, but it would be a little more complete.

There are reasons one might expect some kind of statistical spread to the numbers; if sprinting ability has some random spread, you would expect the competitors to be the population many standard deviations out on the fastest end. The drop in world-record times is going to be a combination of improvements in health and training methods, along with sampling a larger fraction of the population due to both raw number increases and cultural and economic factors — sports is a leisure-time pursuit, and if your economic situation doesn’t allow it, you aren’t going to compete in track and field. We’re doing more sampling of the fastest times, and the number will get smaller as a result. The notion that

A runner capable of beating Bolt, he says, “hasn’t been born yet.”

may be true, but isn’t supported by this graph. It’s also possible that the runner has been born (and died), but he was born into poverty and/or war, or died over a hundred years ago and never got a chance to run track, or any other number of possible scenarios. We don’t sample all of the population. Maybe Bolt is really near the physical limit, and it’s just a statistical fluke that he’s running track here and now. We don’t really know. Sadly, though, the media has latched onto this analysis, and people might think it means something.

Taking the Wrong Root

The root of the climate email fiasco

When I read that, I was struck by the gulf between our worlds. To those of us who clamoured for freedom of information laws in Britain, FoI requests are almost sacred. The passing of these laws was a rare democratic victory; they’re among the few means we possess of ensuring that politicians and public servants are answerable to the public. What scientists might regard as trivial and annoying, journalists and democracy campaigners see as central and irreducible. We speak in different tongues and inhabit different worlds.

I know how it happens. Like most people with a science degree, I left university with a store of recondite knowledge that I could share with almost no one. Ill-equipped to understand any subject but my own, I felt cut off from the rest of the planet. The temptation to retreat into a safe place was almost irresistible. Only the extreme specialisation demanded by a PhD, which would have walled me in like an anchorite, dissuaded me.

I have to disagree with this. I don’t think that scientists see sharing of information as trivial and annoying. I think scientists see bureaucracy as trivial and annoying. Anything that stands in the way of doing science is usually seen as trivial and annoying. Training seminars, miscellaneous paperwork, silly and ineffectual rules imposed by the administration, IT, procurement, etc. are seen as trivial and annoying. The fun part of a scientist’s job is the science. We put up with crap, which can comprise the majority of our time, for the benefit of the time spent doing the science. Sharing data with a collaborator? Sure. Sharing data with someone will sift through it in an effort to cherry-pick some bit so that they can come to the opposite conclusion of what the data really say? IOW, somebody not doing science? I fully appreciate the resentment on the imposition of time and effort one might feel. I don’t condone efforts to break the law, but running it by the administration to see if it can be excluded as invalid, or any other loophole? I understand that tactic.

I also disagree with the sentiment that a science degree (and an undergraduate one at that) leaves one “Ill-equipped to understand any subject but my own.” If a science- or technology-related degree leaves you ill-equipped to understand a different science discipline, dear god, where does that leave someone who majors in the humanities or social sciences? I just don’t see that as being the case. What I do see is that some people are ignorant of science and proud of it, and others who want to be spoon-fed the science and aren’t willing to put forth any effort to learn the basics, so that we have a common ground for discussion.

Monbiot discusses the closed world of science, and how “There are no rewards for agreeing with your colleagues, tremendous incentives to prove them wrong.” This is absolutely true, and yet anyone familiar with political controversy over scientific issues knows that this is a message not getting out to the masses, so I’m not sure what the point is. Conspiracy and groupthink accusations abound in the global warming arena, and in almost all areas of science where there is dissent. Since there are basically no areas of science free of dissenters, dissent is not evidence of error. Consensus is the norm, unlike what the anti-AGW camp would have you believe.

Where I do agree with Monbiot is that getting the word out could see improvement; scientists could do a better job of engaging and explaining things to the public. This might be a tough sell, because it’s time away from doing science, and most scientists aren’t trained to do it. Gee, if only we had people who were trained in communication skills who could take the baton. But many journalists aren’t up to the task, because they lack the science skill set the scientists have, often don’t check to see that they are correct, or they want to present “both sides” of a story that doesn’t really have two sides; they end up giving credibility to positions that lack scientific merit.

Then comes the shot at higher education. It’s the schools’ fault. There may be some merit to that, when schools teach facts at the expense of the process of thinking. Given the title of the piece, I thought there would be more discussion on this.

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Even if we could fix these problems, the cynic in me (he was delicious) asks, “to what end?” The reason I know that better communication and education of the public isn’t really the holy grail is that we have examples of this already. People have known for decades that smoking is bad for you, and yet people still smoke. Ditto for eating junk food. There are behaviors that are driven by something other than the logic of one’s well-being a few decades off in the future. I want a smoke or some cheese fries. Doctors — eh, what do they know? Statistics about what might happen later on are too much of an abstraction. Driving cars and cranking up the air conditioning on a hot day are what we want now, so it’s too easy to justify a dismissal of science, if one is offered to us. Even if it’s a lie or a rationalization. Most of the opponents of scientific endeavors aren’t going to be swayed by information — the facts. You can’t use logic and reason to dissuade someone who arrived at their position via emotional or ideological means.

Leonard Pinth-Garnell Meets Merriam and Webster

Zapperz reports on the Bad Glossary of Particle Physics Terms

The sad thing in all of this is not that they got it wrong. I would not expect a reporter to get all of this correct. The sad part is that (i) no one bothers to fact-check them and (ii) they don’t have a expert staff or a physicist on call to give this a quick glance. How difficult can it be? It just shows a total lack of respect for this area of reporting.

A Day Early, a Dollar Short

NBC’s Today show breaks the story on internet trolling. I’m not kidding; I heard the teaser on Wednesday morning at the gym, so this wasn’t an April Fool’s day prank. Trolling: The Today Show Explores the Dark Side of the Internet

Um, Today? It’s your landline, corded phone ringing. I think it’s USENET from 1993 calling to say, “Nothing new here.” Now go work on that new story and tell us all about chatrooms, and work your way up to facebook. In a few years, you can “discover” Twitter.

Why the Science Media is Not Your Friend

Advice to Climate Scientists on how to Avoid being Swift-boated and how to become Public Intellectuals

Even though this is written in terms of climate science, it really applies in general to science and science reporting, but has added importance for any science that has political controversy attached to it — politics involves swaying public opinion, and that often doesn’t involve (indeed, often actively avoids) factual information.

Media thrives on controversy, which produces ratings and advertising revenue. As a result, it is structured into an ‘on the one hand, on the other hand’ binary argument. Any broadcast that pits a climate change skeptic against a serious climate scientist is automatically a win for the skeptic, since a false position is being given equal time and legitimacy.

This doesn’t have to be in the context of a debate — it is true in stories as well. Any story about how vaccinations don’t cause autism but included any response from Jenny McCarthy, was giving credence to a position that has no scientific support. This is playing out even now as the creationists try to adopt global warming as another cause, and attempt the balanced teaching/teach the controversy approach. Which, scientifically speaking, is insane, because schoolchildren aren’t in a position to decide what constitutes good science.

Science is a meritocracy, not a democracy. Crappy ideas, ones without the support of evidence, do not merit equal time in scientific discussions. You do not get free admission and a seat at the table — there’s a “you must be this tall” sign against which you must compare your evidence and methodology. The media need to learn this.

Stop! In the Name of Physics

In Brookhaven Collider, Scientists Briefly Break a Law of Nature

The departure from normal physics manifested itself in the apparent ability of the briefly freed quarks to tell right from left. That breaks one of the fundamental laws of nature, known as parity, which requires that the laws of physics remain unchanged if we view nature in a mirror.

Ok, that’s interesting — that the reaction violated parity conservation, which I imagine has implications for the matter/antimatter asymmetry issue (I have long wondered if symmetry violation conditions changed with energy, and now it appears that they can and do). But if a reaction violates parity conservation, then parity conservation is not a law of nature; at best you have a “parity conservation zone.” Laws of nature describe how nature behaves. Whatever nature does, it is in accordance with these laws.

The editor who came up with the title needs to write “It is impossible to violate the laws of nature” a thousand times.

For more on the science, and confirmation that this follows, rather than breaks, the laws of physics, check out Cosmic Variance

Update: for some backstory on parity violation, check out Symmetry: It’s More Like a Guideline about the confirmation of how weak interactions don’t “keep to the code.”

The Red Pen Brigade

Cocktail Party Physics: a few choice words from the red pen brigade

Some more on the topic of targeting your communication, and the utility of editors.

The hardest thing about teaching anybody anything is finding the right level of communication, and the right way to express the concepts. It would seem logical that you don’t go all jargony on a rank beginner, anymore than you have to spend time explaining the basics to an expert. But you’d be surprised how hard it is to put that into practice. How much knowledge do you assume? And how clear an idea do you as an instructor or writer have of what each level of knowledge actually includes? One of the tricks of being a good teacher is to remember what it was like when you were just starting out. What didn’t you know then that you know now? And then you determine the correct order in which to teach it.

But that’s not all that you have to worry about, either. The next problem is expressing that knowledge clearly in a way that will allow the listener or reader to follow your argument and build on what they already know. When you’re teaching, you tend to do this in a number of ways, using various media. You drag in handouts, you assign textbook readings, you draw pictures, you write concepts and key vocabulary on the board, you use PowerPoint, videos, diagrams, whatever you can get your hands on to reinforce what you’re saying in your lecture. But in the end, it all boils down to words, and if you’re not using them effectively and clearly, your students or readers are sunk.

Why, Indeed?

Why is the news media comfortable with lying about science?

If a news organization had put words in the mouth of a political figure, there would almost certainly be a firestorm of controversy. The same would occur if one had turned to a Hollywood star or sports figure for comment on, say, a Congressional Budget Office report. When it comes to science, however, the response seems to be limited to a few outraged bloggers. It’s difficult not to think that there’s a double standard involved in the complete indifference to accuracy when it comes to scientific information.