Getting Your Scorecard

Wrong Tomorrow

When someone makes a prediction, people post it to the site along with a brief description and a URL. We monitor it and change its status to true or false when appropriate.

They want significant, empirically testable predictions made by public figures, that have no more than a five-year horizon. Topics (thus far) are politics, technology, and finance.

Research has shown that experts make predictions at a rate worse than chance. This site exists in order to hold people and media outlets accountable for pretending to see into an unpredictable future.

And despite being often-wrong, they keep at it. And people still listen to them and cite them as authorities.

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Like the Corners of My Mind

Things I remember

I remember about 75% of those things. Not quite old enough for the iceman or not having indoor plumbing, but I remember having four channels of black & white TV (6, 10 and 13, plus PBS on 17) and adjusting rabbit ears to get better reception.

Other things I remember
Church keys for opening cans, and there was no such thing as a twist-off bottle cap
– later, pop-top tabs that weren’t attached to the can
78 RPM (though I never bought one) and 45 and 33 records, and putting a coin on the tonearm
Reel-to-reel tapes
Green stamps at the grocery store
Single-use flash bulb (blue) on a camera
Adding water to a car battery
Using a typewriter with a ribbon on a spool
Vacuum-tube electronics
Using a card catalog in the library