The Scientists' Dilemma

I recently had an interesting discussion with someone who is interested in science, but without training or experience as a scientist. The question was, basically: Why don’t we (scientists) all just lie to each other? i.e. what compels scientists to truthfully share their research results? It’s a fair question — we’re human and competitive to some degree, and at first blush there would seem to be a lot to gain from keeping competitors off-balance by feeding them false clues.

I will draw a distinction here between non-cooperation, i.e. secrecy, and deception. Certainly there are endeavors where information sharing is limited — corporate and military research have their secrets, and I suppose that some endeavors might actually try and mislead the competition. This secrecy is (in my experience) rare in the more open environment of academia. Why is this? There a couple of factors.

Science is big — really big — and there is a built-in symbiosis that has arisen. Nobody can possibly study every area of science, so we have to be able to trust that information we get elsewhere is valid. The so-called scientific method has developed ways to do this — we like to confirm experimental results either by replicating the work, doing a similar experiment or doing a more advanced experiment that uses the results, which gives a trust-but-verify attitude, and knowing that results are going to be checked is a motivation to be truthful. Reputations are at stake, and even if there were no peer review you wouldn’t want to be know as an untrustworthy researcher — if you are consistently wrong, whether by sloppiness or deceit, nobody will pay attention to you. So part of the answer is peer pressure.

Science is big in terms of career length as well — decades, vs the time scale of experiments, or more importantly, publications and talks, which is measure in months to a few years. If a scientist is going to engage in deception in order to complete an experiment first, the benefit has to last beyond that one experiment. And it doesn’t. Some level of cooperation serves any scientist’s interests much more than subterfuge.

In science, information is a valuable commodity. You publish and present results at conferences with the expectation that everyone else will do the same, and beyond this, you have discussions in the hallways or at meals, in which you discuss details that never make it into the papers or talks. Just reading a paper does not give you all of the information necessary to complete it — one might describe a certain layout for an experiment, but what isn’t discussed is how to get the experiment to work. The nice graph of data that has been published, for example, is the end result. There is no information about what knobs you have to tweak to get from an ugly, noisy signal to the nice one, and there is usually no discussion of the false paths one went down in pursuing the result. That’s what you talk about when you are trading information, and the value is that it’s a huge time-saver. It’s one justification for the graduate school system, where acquiring experience is given some value (overvalued, perhaps, by those paying salaries). Knowing what not to do is a benefit in terms of both time and money.

Bucking the system, then, threatens to cut you off from that flow of information. Someone more familiar math could no doubt go into details, but I’m sure that it’s some application of game theory. While you might be smarter than everyone else, you are not smarter than everyone else put together — even if you started with a lead isolation will eventually leave you far behind the pack as you have to try all of the dead ends, while the cooperative ones will share that information and save time. Taking the middle ground of simply not sharing is no better. People will stop talking to you once they realize that the relationship is asymmetric.

Since I work for the military, I run into the conflict between sharing and keeping secrets, which is pretty much divided along the lines of scientists vs military staff. You have to make your case that not sharing has a price — this information flow asymmetry would quickly shut one off from juicy details, and cost your program time and money to get the desired results. That usually works.

There’s another consequence of the value of information sharing, and I think it contributes to the scientific community’s attitude toward fraud. There are some self-policing communities that seem to have an “I have your back if you have mine” attitude and so misdeeds are sometimes not punished severely. But in science, fraud is a death knell. Part of this is because one of the parties to research can’t be convinced to go along: nature itself. If I falsify data, there will come a time when this impacts someone else, and I don’t have any control over the results of someone else’s experiment. And because, as I said, human nature might tempt us, the punishment has to be severe, such as revoking your degree.

Is it Time for the Hanke-Henry?

Is It Time to Overhaul the Calendar?

Their proposed calendar overhaul — largely unprecedented in the 430 years since Pope Gregory XIII instituted the Gregorian calendar we still use today — would divvy out months and weeks so that every calendar date would always fall on the same day of the week. Christmas, for example, would forever come on a Sunday.

“The calendar I’m advocating isn’t nearly as accurate” as the Gregorian calendar, said Richard Henry, an astrophysicist at Johns Hopkins who has been pushing for calendar reform for years. “But it’s far more convenient.”

In keeping with Betteridge’s law, I think the answer is “no”. The objections noted at the end are enough, but inertia is probably enough. The US can’t even get the metric system in place, and there’s a strong passive-aggressive streak of opposing changes that the government tries to instigate. This is also something that a majority of the world would have to adopt, in order to force everyone to do so. I think you need more than streamlining calendar printing/software.

They Didn't Take it to Cuba

CSM Exclusive: Iran hijacked US drone, says Iranian engineer

[T]his engineer’s account of how Iran took over one of America’s most sophisticated drones suggests Tehran has found a way to hit back. The techniques were developed from reverse-engineering several less sophisticated American drones captured or shot down in recent years, the engineer says, and by taking advantage of weak, easily manipulated GPS signals, which calculate location and speed from multiple satellites.

I’m pretty sure “weak, easily manipulated GPS signals” is a sphincter-clench-inducing phrase in some circles.

I Feel That Ice is Slowly Melting

Here Comes the Sun

This has already led to rapid growth in solar installations, but even more change may be just around the corner. If the downward trend continues — and if anything it seems to be accelerating — we’re just a few years from the point at which electricity from solar panels becomes cheaper than electricity generated by burning coal.

And if we priced coal-fired power right, taking into account the huge health and other costs it imposes, it’s likely that we would already have passed that tipping point.

But will our political system delay the energy transformation now within reach?

Can We Say So Long to DST?

Why Daylight Saving Time Should Be Abolished

I’m not at all opposed to this; I have an increasingly hard time dealing with the time change — especially in the spring. And the argument about saving energy (in the US) seems to have gone by the wayside with more widespread adoption of air conditioning. I do enjoy the extra evening hour of sunlight in the spring and fall because it extends the time I can go geocaching, but I’d manage if we eliminated the practice.

Contradictions

It’s pretty standard fare (with too few notable exceptions) for the GOP to take anti-science stances on topics like evolution and, more recently, global warming. From my perspective, it’s interesting to note that those candidates who have declared global warming to be false are taking a position that’s contrary to that of the military — the people who have a vested interest in the science as far as it involves the security of the US, and who do not have to take positions in order to “align” themselves with voters.

This is a video of the Oceanographer of the Navy, RADM David Titley, who was formerly the commanding officer of the Meteorology and Oceanography command (i.e. my boss, several levels up). It also turns out that I grew up less than a mile from him, and while I am junior enough that our paths did not cross in high school, a younger brother of his was my patrol leader in the Boy Scouts. It made for an interesting exchange when I got a chance meet him when he toured the lab — a comment from left field (not being related to the science and technology) and it took him a second to mentally shift gears and process it.

Anyway, he was a skeptic until he got a good look at the science, and now it’s his job (and others) to worry about the impacts of global warming on our nation’s defense. So I wonder how a GOP candidate — who usually comes with a “strong on defense” label already attached, would reconcile these opposing positions? Are they really willing to weaken our defense by ignoring global warming? Would voters be swayed from a denialist stance, knowing that the navy accepted it as good and valid science and takes it very seriously?

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Oceanographer for the U.S. Navy, RADM David Titley discusses the hot topic of climate change, and its impending ramifications on national security. Listen as he details some of the top facts and figures you should know about climate change and your future, explained in terms that even the most unfamiliar with science would be able to understand.

I love the observation that ~390 ppm, dismissed as inconsequential by global warming denialists, is enough to get you a bit drunk if it’s alcohol in the blood.

Five Manufactured "Truths" About the Climate Change Discussion

Five Truths About Climate Change

I’m going to start by quoting the conclusion

It’s time to move the debate past the dogmatic view that carbon dioxide is evil and toward a world view that accepts the need for energy that is cheap, abundant and reliable.

There are two possible lines of argument in the discussion: science and policy. The best science establishes that anthropogenic global warming is true, and from that you decide what, if anything, you do about it.

The first point is about political reality

The result? Nothing, aside from promises by various countries to get serious—really serious—about carbon emissions sometime soon.

Here’s a reality check: During the same decade that Mr. Gore and the IPCC dominated the environmental debate, global carbon-dioxide emissions rose by 28.5%.

i.e. the politicians of the world couldn’t get their act together and actually do anything. Somehow, that must falsify anthropogenic global warming. In the real world, though, nature doesn’t take its cue from politics. Some legislature could declare a gravity-free day, but you aren’t going to float off into space as a result. So really this is just a celebration of the fact that the denialists in the government have been successful. It doesn’t mean they were right.

2) Regardless of whether it’s getting hotter or colder—or both—we are going to need to produce a lot more energy in order to remain productive and comfortable.

That’s a non-sequitur. The need for energy has absolutely no effect on the correctness of the science. It’s also not true that we need a lot more energy — our energy use growth has been a meager 0.4% a year the last decade — and it also doesn’t mean that added capacity can’t be “green”.

3) The carbon-dioxide issue is not about the United States anymore.

It never was. The author plays some games with statistics, but we’re still the biggest producer of CO2 per capita of the regions mentioned. So, whoop-de-doo that we’ve lowered our emissions 1.7%, when they are twice as much per person than in European countries or three times as much as in China. While the author is happy to pass the buck and complain that what others are doing isn’t working, we in the US can only be responsible for what happens in the US. We’re not in a position to try an influence anyone else if our own house isn’t in order.

Nearly all of the things we use on a daily basis—light bulbs, computers, automobiles—are vastly more efficient than they were just a few years ago. And over the coming years those devices will get even better at turning energy into useful lighting, computing and motive power.

This is despite the GOP trying to kill the measure that increases lighting efficiency, and that the improvements in things like computers, appliances and cars are driven by government regulation (energy star and cafe standards).

The science is not settled, not by a long shot. Last month, scientists at CERN, the prestigious high-energy physics lab in Switzerland, reported that neutrinos might—repeat, might—travel faster than the speed of light. If serious scientists can question Einstein’s theory of relativity, then there must be room for debate about the workings and complexities of the Earth’s atmosphere.

Seriously? Neutrinos were measured (probably incorrectly) to be FTL, and that means global warming is wrong? The weasel is strong in this one. This is a standard denialist tactic — science has been wrong in the past, therefore we can’t trust science. Which seems terribly hypocritical when presented by someone using the advances of science, probably on a daily basis. I’m just guessing, but I’d wager that the author doesn’t think his computer or car run because of magic.

Failure is Not an Option

Neal Stephenson: Innovation Starvation

Innovation can’t happen without accepting the risk that it might fail. The vast and radical innovations of the mid-20th century took place in a world that, in retrospect, looks insanely dangerous and unstable. Possible outcomes that the modern mind identifies as serious risks might not have been taken seriously—supposing they were noticed at all—by people habituated to the Depression, the World Wars, and the Cold War, in times when seat belts, antibiotics, and many vaccines did not exist. Competition between the Western democracies and the communist powers obliged the former to push their scientists and engineers to the limits of what they could imagine and supplied a sort of safety net in the event that their initial efforts did not pay off. A grizzled NASA veteran once told me that the Apollo moon landings were communism’s greatest achievement.

In the pre-net era, managers were forced to make decisions based on what they knew to be limited information. Today, by contrast, data flows to managers in real time from countless sources that could not even be imagined a couple of generations ago, and powerful computers process, organize, and display the data in ways that are as far beyond the hand-drawn graph-paper plots of my youth as modern video games are to tic-tac-toe. In a world where decision-makers are so close to being omniscient, it’s easy to see risk as a quaint artifact of a primitive and dangerous past.

Running the Asylum

Unequivocal: Today’s Right is Overwhelmingly More Anti-Science Than Today’s Left

Both left and right have fringes, where silly claims are made. Thus, for instance, after Fukushima some lefties went hunting for dead babies on the U.S. West Coast from ionizing radiation supposedly traveling across the Pacific. Like I said, fringes.

But the fringes aren’t very relevant—unless the inmates are running the asylum. That’s what you have today on the right, where Republicans and Tea Partiers overwhelmingly reject mainstream knowledge in key areas and these views are also endorsed by elected representatives and even presidential candidates.

Bingo. The wackaloons on the left aren’t in a position to decide on legislation.